Total foodgrain production is estimated at 3288.52 Lakh Metric Tonne (LMT), which is slightly lower than foodgrain production of 2022-23 while higher by 211.00 LMT from average foodgrain production of last 5 years (2018-19 to 2022-23) of 3077.52 LMT.

Total Rice production is estimated at 1367.00 LMT as compared to 1357.55 LMT in 2022-23, showing an increase of 9.45 LMT. Production of Wheat is estimated at 1129.25 LMT which is higher by 23.71 LMT from previous year’s wheat production.

Production of Shree Anna is estimated at 174.08 LMT showing a marginal increase of 0.87 LMT from 2022-23 production. Further, Production of Nutri/Coarse Cereals is estimated at 547.34 LMT which is higher by 46.24 LMT from average Nutri/ Coarse Cereals production.

Production of Tur is estimated at 33.85 LMT which is marginally higher by 0.73 LMT from last year’s production of 33.12 LMT. Production of Lentil is estimated at 17.54 LMT which is higher by 1.95 LMT than the previous year’s production of 15.59 LMT.

The production of Soybean is estimated at 130.54 LMT and production of Rapeseed & Mustard is estimated at 131.61 LMT which higher by 5.18 LMT to last year’s production. The production of Cotton is estimated at 325.22 Lakh Bales (of 170 Kg each) and production of Sugarcane is estimated at 4425.22 LMT.

FAO Food Price Index

The Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations releases monthly food price index. The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) is a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities. It consists of the average of five commodity group price indices weighted by the average export shares of each of the groups over 2014-2016.

The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) stood at 120.4 points in May 2024, up 1.1 points (0.9 percent) from its revised April level, as increases in the price indices for cereals and dairy products slightly more than offset decreases in those for sugar and vegetable oils, while the meat price index was almost unchanged. Although it registered a third consecutive monthly uptick in May, the FFPI remained down 3.4 percent from its corresponding value one year ago and 24.9 percent below the peak of 160.2 points reached in March 2022.

The FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 118.7 points in May, up 7.1 points (6.3 percent) from April, but still 10.6 points (8.2 percent) below its May 2023 value.

Global export prices of all major cereals rose month-on-month, with wheat prices increasing the most. The sharp monthly rise was largely due to growing concerns about unfavorable crop conditions for the 2024 harvests, possibly constraining yields in some main producing areas of several major exporting countries, including in parts of Europe, Northern America and the Black Sea region.

The FAO All Rice Price Index edged up by 1.3 percent in May, driven by higher Indica quotations, influenced by expectations of sales to Indonesia and Brazil, and easing harvest pressure.

Summer crops

As per preliminary report (as on 24.05.2024), area sown under summer crops 2024 is 76.98 lakh ha as compared to 70.60 lakh ha during the corresponding period of last year. For Kharif 2024, availability of certified/ quality seed in the country is 185.91 lakh quintals against the requirement of 168.41 lakh quintals indicating an overall surplus of 17.50 lakh quintals of seeds. Availability of fertilizers against requirement has been found comfortable in the country for Kharif 24. All India wholesale prices of Rice, Wheat, Gram, Arhar, Masoor, Mustard, Soyabean and Sesamum have shown an increase during the last week. However, prices of Urad, Moong, Groundnut and Sunflower have decreased during the end of May. Procurement of wheat in Rabi Marketing Season (RMS) 2024-25 is progressing smoothly and up to 26.05.2024, a quantity of 264.12 LMT of wheat has already been procured, surpassing previous season’s final procured quantity of 262.02 LMT.

Reservoir Storage

Central Water Commission is monitoring live storage status of 150 reservoirs of the country and is issuing weekly bulletin on every Thursday. Out of these reservoirs, 20 reservoirs are of hydro-electric projects having total live storage capacity of 35.299 BCM. The total live storage capacity of 150 reservoirs is 178.784 BCM which is about 69.35% of the live storage capacity of 257.812 BCM which is estimated to have been created in the country.

As per reservoir storage bulletin dated 06.06.2024, live storage available in these reservoirs is 39.765 BCM, which is 22% of total live storage capacity of these reservoirs. However, last year the live storage available in these reservoirs for the corresponding period was 50.549 BCM and Normal storage was 42.727 BCM. Thus, the live storage available in 150 reservoirs as per 06.06.2024 Bulletin is 79% of the live storage of corresponding period of last year and 93% of Normal storage.

Broad trends in agri sector gross value added

The growth in gross value added (GVA) in the agriculture and allied sector in 2023-24 stood at 0.7 per cent as against 4.7 per cent a year earlier as foodgrains production declined due to the deficient and uneven southwest monsoon rainfall. The government undertook a number of supply measures throughout the year to maintain domestic supply-demand balance in food items and mitigate inflationary pressures. They included release of public foodgrains stocks through open market sales; application of stock limits in cereals and pulses; export restrictions on cereals and onions; and easing of access to import pulses and edible oils. The declaration of 2023 as the international year of millets by the United Nations (UN) provided a renewed thrust to diversification of crops from rice and wheat towards nutritional, environmentally sustainable and traditional crops across the country.

The agriculture and allied activities sector faced headwinds from the uneven and deficient Southwest monsoon rainfall coinciding with strengthening El Nino 7 conditions. The overall SWM rainfall in 2023 (June-September) was 6 per cent below long period average (LPA) at the all-India level. The late onset of the Southwest monsoon, along with temporal and spatial uneven precipitation, delayed the start of kharif sowing and a shortfall occurred in overall kharif sowing. The Northeast monsoon (NEM) [October-December] also ended with a rainfall deficit of 9 per cent. The below-normal Southwest and Northeast rainfall depleted overall reservoir storage levels.

As per the SAE, the production of kharif and Rabi foodgrains in 2023-24 was 1.3 per cent lower than the final estimates of the previous year. The output of millets could benefit from productivity gains. As per the First Advance Estimates (FAE), the production of horticultural crops during 2023-24 was 0.1 per cent below the final estimates of 2022-23, mainly due to lower production in vegetables.

The minimum support prices (MSPs) for both kharif and Rabi seasons 2023-24 ensured a minimum return of 50 per cent over the cost of production9 for all crops. The overall public stock of foodgrains as on March 31, 2024 stood at 2.9 times the total quarterly buffer norm.

Agricultural exports registered a decline of 9.0 per cent (y-o-y) to reach US$ 46.8 billion during 2023-24. Rice exports contracted by 6.5 per cent (y-o-y) to US$ 10.4 billion during 2023- 24, due to restrictions on exports to improve domestic supplies. Moreover, credit to agriculture expanded by 20.1 per cent in March 2024 as compared to 15.4 per cent a year ago.

Outlook

The prospects for agriculture and rural activity appear favorable due to the ebbing El Nino and the expected above normal southwest monsoon though a truant start to the actual rainfall in June 2024 could pose some worries. The extension of Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY) scheme for a period of five more years with effect from January 1, 2024 will strengthen national food security. The government’s focus on AatmaNirbhar Oilseeds Abhiyan, the expansion of environmentally sustainable nano di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) in all agro-climatic zones and the promotion of bio-economy through a new bio-manufacturing and bio-foundry scheme in the interim Union Budget 2024-25 would also support the agriculture sector.

Third Advance Estimate of Crop Production (Source: Department of Agriculture & Farmer Welfare)