The price of India’s basket of crude oil moved up 1.9% to US$ 83.18 per barrel in March 2024 from February 2024. It jumped 8.3% to US$ 90.11 per barrel in early April 2024. The price of India’s basket of crude oil is down 0.4% in March 2024 from US$ 83.49 per barrel in March 2023.

Crude oil production

India's crude oil production increased 7.9% to 2.33 million tonnes (mt) in February 2024 over February 2023. Crude oil output of ONGC gained 5.9% to 1.53 mt, while that of Oil India moved up 7.4% to 0.26 mt. ONGC's offshore output increased 6.0% to 1.04 mt, while onshore production gained 5.5% to 0.49 mt. The crude oil production of private and joint venture (JV) companies jumped 14.3% to 0.54 mt in February 2024.

Crude oil output rose increased 0.5% to 26.85 mt in April-February period of the fiscal year ending February 2024 (April-February 2023-24), snapping 1.6% declined recorded in the corresponding period of last year. Output of ONGC dipped 1.5% to 17.58 mt, while that of Oil India moved up 6.0% to 3.05 mt. The crude oil production of private companies increased 3.6% to 6.23 mt in April-February 2023-24 over April-February 2022-23.

Crude oil refinery output

India's crude oil refinery output moved up 2.5% to 22.16 mt in February 2024 over February 2023. The output of public sector refineries increased 1.4% to 12.80 mt, while the output of private refineries moved up 4.1% to 9.36 mt in February 2024.

Among public refineries, the output of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation jumped 31.2% to 1.76 mt and Numaligarh Refineries 15.8% to 0.27 mt, while that of Chennai Petroleum Corporation increased 8.7% to 0.99 mt and Mangalore Refineries 8.4% to 1.35 mt. However, the refinery output of Indian Oil Corporation eased 4.3% to 5.50 mt and Bharat Petroleum Corporation 7.0% to 2.93 mt in February 2024.

Among private refiners, the output of Reliance Petroleum moved up 4.5% to 6.88 mt, while that of Essar Oil increased 4.4% to 1.61 mt in February 2024 over February 2023. The output of HMEL Bhatinda gained 0.1% to 0.87 mt in February 2024.

The cumulative refinery output increased 3.8% to 247.98 mt in April-February 2023-24. The output of public refineries moved up 3.9% to 142.91 mt, while that of private refineries increased 5.7% to 11.11 mt. The refinery output of JV refineries eased 0.7% to 2.01 mt in April-February 2023-24. Among public refineries, the output of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation increased 18.7%, Bharat Petroleum Corporation 4.0%, Chennai Petroleum Corporation 3.9% and Indian Oil Corporation 3.1%, while that of Mangalore Refineries climbed down 3.8% and Numaligarh Refineries 23.1%.

The overall capacity utilization declined to 103.8% in February 2024 compared with 108.2% in February 2023, while it was higher at 102.4% in April-February 2023-24 compared with 101.0% in April-February 2022-23.

Product wise, the output of naphtha jumped 19.9% to 16.42 mt, bitumen 17.5% to 0.52 mt, LPG ATF 9.4% to 1.45 mt in February 2024. Further, the output of petrol moved up 4.1% to 3.67 mt, diesel 1.6% to 9.49 mt and LPG 0.4% to 1.01 mt. However, the output of fuel oil declined 1.0% to 0.71 mt, petcoke 4.0% to 1.2 mt and others 0.8% to 2.52 mt.

Natural gas production

India's natural gas production increased 11.1% to 2.95 billion cubic meters (bcm) in February 2024 over a year ago. Natural gas output of ONGC dipped 0.2% to 1.51 bcm, while that of Oil India rose 5.8% to 0.25 bcm. Further, the natural gas production of private and JV companies moved up 31.4% to 1.19 bcm in February 2024. Natural gas output gained 5.7% to 33.30 bcm in April-February 2024-24 over April-September 2022-23.

Fuel Product consumption

India's fuel product consumption or sales increased 6.6% to 19.72 mt in February 2024 over a year ago. The sales of diesel jumped 6.3% to 7.44 mt, petrol 8.9% to 3.02 mt, LPG 8.5% to 2.59 mt and naphtha 12.3% to 1.19 mt. Further, the consumption of bitumen increased 13.2% to 0.91 mt, ATF 13.0% to 0.70 mt, others 4.2% to 1.40 mt, petcoke 2.5% to 1.53 mt, light diesel oil (LDO) 12.5% to 0.06 mt and kerosene 9.1% to 0.04 mt. However, the consumption of fuel oil declined 10.0% to 0.51 mt and lubes/greases 7.5% to 0.32 mt in February 2024.

Consumption or sales of fuel products increased 5.2% to 212.22 mt in April-February 2023-24 over April-February 2022-23. Sales of diesel jumped 4.5% to 81.62 mt, petrol 6.4% to 33.90 mt, naphtha 14.6% to 12.66 mt and petcoke 6.4% to 17.49 mt. Further, the consumption of bitumen improved 14.8% to 7.87 mt, LPG 3.6% to 27.04 mt, ATF 12.1% to 7.49 mt, lubes/greases 7.5% to 3.64 mt and LDO 11.0% to 0.72 mt. However, the consumption of kerosene declined 2.2% to 0.45 mt, others 3.6% to 13.36 mt and fuel oil 5.8% to 6.00 mt in April-February 2023-24.

Trade in fuel products

India’s import of crude oil declined 6.6% to 18.02 mt in February 2024 over February 2023. Imports of petroleum products jumped 13.1% to 4.04 mt, driven by jump in the imports of LPG 5%, fuel oil 28%, petcoke 23% and bitumen 23%. On the other hand, the exports of petroleum products increased 5.1% to 5.32 mt, driven by jump in exports of diesel 11.6% and ATF 25.4%, naphtha 5.0% and fuel oil 80.3%, while exports of others declined 30.0% and petrol 8.9% in February 2024.

Outlook

The Brent Crude oil price recovered above US$ 80 per barrel mark in February 2024 and sustained at elevated levels in early March 2024 and jumped above US$ 90 per barrel mark in April 2024. The crude oil price has continued to gain for fourth straight month in April 2024 leading to overall increase of over 17% in calendar year 2024 so far. The geopolitical tensions relating to Israel-Iran and Ukraine-Russia crisis have caused spike in the crude oil prices. The better than expected economic data relating to China and decline in US crude oil stocks have also supported the sentiments in the crude oil market.