The price of India’s basket of crude oil rose 2.3% to US$ 79.22 per barrel in January 2024 from December 2023. It rose 0.3% to US$ 79.42 per barrel in early February 2024. The price of India’s basket of crude oil is down 3.5% from US$ 80.92 per barrel in January 2023.

Crude oil production

India's crude oil production declined 0.8% to 2.46 million tonnes (mt) in December 2023 over December 2022. Crude oil output of ONGC fell 1.9% to 1.53 mt, while that of Oil India moved up 7.4% to 0.29 mt. PSU total output declined 1.1% to 1.81 mt. The crude oil production of private and joint venture (JV) companies dipped 15.1% to 0.45 mt in December 2023.

Crude oil output declined 0.3% to 22.03 mt in April-December period of the fiscal year ending March 2024 (April-December 2023-24). Output of ONGC dipped 2.4% to 13.62 mt, while that of Oil India moved up 6.4% to 2.51 mt. PSU total output declined 1.2% to 16.11 mt. The crude oil production of private companies declined 10.1% to 4.29 mt in April-December 2023-24 over April-December 2022-23.

Crude oil refinery output

India's crude oil refinery output rose 1.9% to 22.69 mt in December 2023 over December 2022. The output of public sector refineries gained 2.8% to 15.68 mt, while the output of private refineries declined 0.2% to 7.00 mt in December 2023.

Among public refineries, the output of Indian Oil Corporation jumped 5.9% to 6.53 mt and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation 2.7% to 2.86 mt, while that of Numaligarh Refineries increased 5.5% to 0.29 mt and Bharat Petroleum rose 1.6% to 3.620 mt. The refinery output of Mangalore Refineries moved up 3.6% to 1.56 mt, but that of Chennai Petroleum Corporation declined 14.5% to 0.82 mt in December 2023.

Among private refiners, the output of Reliance Petroleum declined 0.6% to 5.278 mt, while that of Essar Oil moved up to 1.1% to 1.73 mt in December 2023.

The cumulative refinery output rose 3.3% to 194.73 mt in April-December 2023-24. The output of public refineries moved up 3.7% to 132.85 mt, while that of private refineries rose 2.5% to 61.881 mt in April-December 2023-24.

Among public refineries, the output of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation increased 11.3%, Bharat Petroleum Corporation 5.0%, Chennai Petroleum Corporation 2.3% and Indian Oil 3.4%, while that of Mangalore Refineries declined 5.5%% and Numaligarh Refineries 27.9%.

Product wise, the output of diesel rose 2.5% to 10.24 mt, petrol 15.5% to 4.26 mt, naptha 8.0% to 1.488 mt in December 2023. Further, the output of ATF moved up 11.8% to 1.50 mt and LPG 10.1% to 1.17 mt. However, the output of fuel oil declined 12.4% to 0.729 mt, petcoke 1.2% to 1.344 mt, other products 5.4% to Rs 3.04 mt and bitumen 2.7% to 0.461 mt.

Natural gas production

India's natural gas production increased 6.1% to 3.132 billion cubic meters (bcm) in December 2023 over a year ago. Onshore natural gas output declined 0.7% to 0.875 bcm, while offshore natural gas output jumped 12.1% to 2.257 bcm. Natural gas output rose 5.2% to 27.212 bcm in April-December 2023-24 over April-December 2022-23. Onshore output rose 2.9% to 8.034 bcm and offshore output increased 9.3% to 19.178 bcm in April-December 2023-24.

Fuel Product consumption

India's fuel product consumption or sales increased 2.6% to 20.05 mt in November 2023 over a year ago. The sales of LPG jumped 2.3% to 2.63 mt, naphtha 27.5% to 1.33 mt, petcoke 12.6% to 1.60 mt and bitumen 10.7% to 0.79 mt. Further, the consumption of ATF increased 9.3% to 0.72 mt, others 3.3% to 1.38 mt, lubes/greases 10.8% to 0.33 mt, petrol 0.2% to 2.99 mt, light diesel oil (LDO) 3.1% to 0.07 mt and kerosene 2.5% to 0.04 mt. However, the consumption of fuel oil declined 7.7% to 0.57 mt and diesel 2.3% to 7.61 mt in November 2023.

Consumption or sales of fuel products increased 4.9% to 172.66 mt in April-November 2023-24 over April-November 2022-23. Sales of LPG jumped 2.6% to 21.75 mt, diesel 4.4% to 66.76 mt, petrol 5.7% to 27.77 mt and naphtha 15.0% to 10.16 mt. Further, the consumption of petcoke improved 7.7% to 14.47 mt, bitumen 15.4% to 6.23 mt, ATF 12.6% to 6.07 mt, lubes/greases 10.1% to 2.96 mt and LDO 8.7% to 0.59 mt. However, the consumption of kerosene declined 4.1% to 0.38 mt, fuel oil 5.1% to 4.93 mt and others 6.9% to 10.62 mt in April-November 2023-24.

Trade in fuel products

India’s import of crude oil rose 1% to 19.832 mt in December 2023 over December 2022. Imports of petroleum products declined 4% to 3.885 mt, driven by dip in the imports of fuel oil and LPG. On the other hand, the exports of petroleum products rose 2% to 5.838 mt, driven by jump in exports of diesel 18% and ATF 24%, while exports of naphtha dipped 35%, petrol 4%, fuel oil 22% and other products 26% in December 2023.

Outlook

The Brent crude oil price has remained stable at low levels for in January 2024 and early February 2024, after sharp decline for previous three straight months. The members of Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have been trying to cut production output in an effort to bring stability in the crude oil market. However, the crude oil output from OPEC allies has exhibited an unexpected increase. The rising concerns about demand in China and global demand has also led to the decline in global crude oil prices.