Sector Trends     13-Jan-24
Sector
Banking: Strong loan growth
 

Key Sector Data

 

Agg

Public Banks

Private Bank

M-Cap (Rs 000 crore)

4587

1332

3255

M-Cap (US$ Bn)

553

161

393

P/E (ttm)

16.2

10.1

21.5

P/BV (times)

2.2

1.5

2.8

ROA (%) (ttm)

1.1

0.9

1.5

ROE (%) (ttm)

13.8

14.8

13.0

GNPA (%)

3.3

4.2

2.1

NNPA (%)

0.8

1.0

0.5

CRAR (%)

19.9

16.0

19.5

Loan growth (%)

19.4

13.2

29.0

The Scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) credit growth has remained strong and steady on sequential basis at 20.2% YoY to Rs 15805276 crore as on 15 December 2023, compared with 20.6% growth a fortnight ago. The credit growth has improved from 14.9% at end December 2022.

Non-food credit, accounting for 99.7% of the share of the total credit, recorded a growth of 20.3%, YoY, at Rs 15762777 crore as on 15 December 2023 as against a rise of 20.8% fortnight ago and 15.3% rise a year ago. Food credit dipped 22.1% to Rs 42499 crore as on 15 December 2023.

The overall credit-deposit ratio rose on sequential basis to 79.9% as on 15 December 2023 from 79.5% a fortnight ago, while jumped from 75.0% in December 2022 with the faster growth in advances.

Sectoral deployment of bank credit

As per the data on sectoral deployment of bank credit as released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), non-food bank credit increased 20.8% in November 2023 over a year ago, showing acceleration in growth compared with 16.4% increase in November 2022. The credit to agriculture increased at improved pace of 18.2% in November 2023, showing acceleration from 14.0% growth in November 2022. Meanwhile, the credit growth to the industry rose 6.6% in November 2023 compared with 13.0% growth in November 2022. Within the industrial segment, the advances to large industry rose 3.6%, while credit to medium industry moved up 12.0% in November 2023. The credit for the micro and small industry increased 17.2% compared with 19.5% growth in November 2022.

Credit growth to the services sector has accelerated to 25.4% in November 2023 compared with an increase of 21.3% in November 2022, driven by acceleration in credit growth for commercial real estate at 37.5%, other services 36.2%, wholesale trade (other than food procurement) 21.0%, transport operators 24.4% and aviation 65.4%, while credit growth has also improved for professional services to 21.1% and tourism, hotels and restaurants 12.9%. However, the services credit growth for NBFCs decelerated to 21.5%, retail trade 17.1% and computer software 9.3%, while the credit to shipping declined10.8% in November 2023.

Personal loans increased at an accelerated pace of 30.1% in November 2023 as against an increase of 19.9% in November 2022. Among the major segments of personal loans, the credit for housing increased at improved pace of 37.0%, other personal loans 24.3%, credit card outstanding 34.2%, education 22.8%, and loans against gold jewellery 18.5%. However, the credit growth has moderated for advances against fixed deposits to 17.2%, consumer durables 10.8%, and vehicle loans 20.8% in November 2023 from November 2022.

Priority sector loans growth improved to 17.8% in November 2023 compared with a 15.7% growth in November 2022. Among priority sector loans, the credit growth for Micro & Small Enterprises improved to 23.2%, Agriculture & Allied Activities 17.6% and Housing 20.4%, while credit to Weaker Sections eased to 13.3%.

Industrial credit growth

Credit to the industrial sector accounting for 23.1% of the total banking sector credit increased 6.6% in November 2023 compared with a rise of 13.0% in November 2022. As per industry-wise classification, the segments showing negative credit growth were petroleum, coal & nuclear fuels at (-) 8.4%.

However, the credit growth has moderated for infrastructure (2.1% from 11.1%), other industries (2.5% from 22.2%), chemicals & chemical products (5.8% from 19.0%) and rubber, plastic & their products (7.6% from 18.3%). Further, the credit growth has also eased for mining & quarrying (incl. coal) (0.2% from 6.4%), all engineering (9.5% from 10.7%) and leather & leather products (4.4% from 5.5%).

On the other hand, the credit growth has accelerated for textiles (14.6% from 3.4%), gems & jewellery (18.0% from -0.1%), basic metal & metal product (17.7% from 15.3%), food processing (11.3% from 7.1%), construction (6.6% from 2.2%) and cement & cement products (16.7% from 10.7%). Further, the credit growth has also improved for vehicles, parts & transport equipment (10.5% from 7.3%), beverage & tobacco (33.6% from 25.0%), glass & glassware (36.2% from 14.7%), wood & wood products (20.5% from 17.5%) and paper & paper products (6.4% from 5.8%), end November 2023 over November 2022.

Aggregate deposits

Aggregate deposits growth of the scheduled banks increased 14.0% YoY at Rs 19791557 crore as on 15 December 2023, compared with 13.6% growth a fortnight ago and 9.2% rise a year ago. The time deposits showed an increase of 14.0% at Rs 17472053 crore, while the demand deposits increased 14.1% to Rs 2319503 crore as on 15 December 2023.

Investments of the banking sector

The banks investment in government and other approved securities that qualify for treatment of statutory liquidity ratio moved up 16.2% YoY to Rs 5959761 crore as on 15 December 2023, showing deceleration in growth from 19.3% increase a fortnight ago.

The investment-deposit ratio eased to 30.1% as on 15 December 2023 from 30.9% a fortnight ago, while jumped from 28.7% in December 2022. The investment-deposit ratio is much higher above the Statutory Liquidity Ratio of 18.0%.

Outlook

The banking loan growth is healthy across the segments. The recent hike in risk weights for unsecured consumer credit, credit cards receivables and non-priority NBFCs is likely to have some impact on credit growth ahead along with high base.The deposit growth has improved to 14.0% driven by term deposits. The low cost Casa deposits continue to be under pressure on account of high term deposit rates. The high terms deposit rates pressure on Casa deposits is likely to continue put pressure on net interest margins of the banking sector amid tightliquidity conditions.

The high operating expenses is causing some pressure for banking sector. However, the marginal decline in the g-sec yield in the quarter ended December 2023 would provide treasury gains and limit provision requirement for depreciation of investment book.

The asset quality and stressed asset level of the banking sector has continued improve with dip in fresh slippages of loans. The strong PCR levels and healthy contingency provision buffers have led to sharp decline in credit costs for banks. The fresh slippage of loans is likely to remain under control, despite some concerns for asset quality in the unsecured loan segment.

Sectoral Deployment of Bank Credit
Sector Nov-22 Nov-23 Variation Over (%)
O/s Amount % Share O/s Amount % Share Fin. Year So Far Y-o-Y
2022-23 2023-24 2022-23 2023-24
Gross Bank Credit (A+B) 129478.1 100.0 156205.5 100.0 8.9 14.2 16.0 20.6
A. Food Credit 522.4 0.4 402.6 0.3 -5.0 102.3 -36.6 -22.9
B. Non-food Credit 128955.7 99.6 155802.9 99.7 8.9 14.1 16.4 20.8
a. Agriculture & Allied Activities 16338.9 12.6 19312.2 12.4 9.1 11.8 14.0 18.2
b. Industry 33776.7 26.1 36008.8 23.1 4.4 5.4 13.0 6.6
Micro & Small 5884.0 4.5 6895.0 4.4 5.1 8.8 19.5 17.2
Medium 2532.9 2.0 2837.7 1.8 5.7 5.7 27.9 12.0
Large 25359.8 19.6 26276.0 16.8 4.1 4.5 10.3 3.6
c. Services 34004.8 26.3 42647.6 27.3 10.0 15.3 21.3 25.4
d. Personal Loans 38881.2 30.0 50565.2 32.4 12.5 20.9 19.9 30.1
Housing (Incl. Priority Sector) 18940.4 14.6 25941.1 16.6 9.7 30.5 16.6 37.0
Vehicle Loans 4677.1 3.6 5647.8 3.6 16.2 12.4 22.3 20.8
Memo: 0.0 0.0
Priority Sector 56854.2 43.9 66984.7 42.9 7.8 11.7 15.7 17.8
Agriculture & Allied Activities 16666.2 12.9 19604.1 12.6 9.8 12.3 15.5 17.6
Micro & Small Enterprises 15237.0 11.8 18764.9 12.0 6.6 14.0 16.2 23.2
Housing 6148.7 4.7 7403.2 4.7 -0.5 18.9 2.5 20.4
Weaker Sections 13506.0 10.4 15308.1 9.8 12.4 8.4 20.6 13.3
Source: Reserve Bank of India, figure in Rs Billion

 

Sectoral Deployment of Industrial Credit
Sector Nov-22 Nov-23 Variation Over (%)
O/s Amount % Share O/s Amount % Share Financial Year So Far Y-o-Y
2022-23 2023-24 2022-23 2023-24
Mining & Quarrying (incl. Coal) 544.48 1.6 545.64 1.5 6.5 -10.5 6.4 0.2
Food Processing 1620.97 4.8 1803.89 5.0 -8.2 -2.9 7.1 11.3
Beverage & Tobacco 205.69 0.6 274.87 0.8 10.1 14.6 25.0 33.6
Textiles 2197.97 6.5 2519.28 7.0 -5.1 6.6 3.4 14.6
Leather & Leather Products 117.28 0.3 122.39 0.3 -2.2 1.3 5.5 4.4
Wood & Wood Products 190.25 0.6 229.25 0.6 8.8 7.3 17.5 20.5
Paper & Paper Products 436.52 1.3 464.51 1.3 2.1 2.7 5.8 6.4
Petroleum, Coal & Nuclear Fuels 1487.59 4.4 1361.92 3.8 36.8 -9.2 63.4 -8.4
Chemicals & Chemical Products 2250.10 6.7 2380.82 6.6 9.9 5.7 19.0 5.8
Rubber, Plastic & their Products 815.73 2.4 877.57 2.4 5.7 3.8 18.3 7.6
Glass & Glassware 80.65 0.2 109.85 0.3 11.8 14.6 14.7 36.2
Cement & Cement Products 532.35 1.6 621.05 1.7 7.9 6.6 10.7 16.7
Basic Metal & Metal Product 3200.72 9.5 3767.57 10.5 8.0 7.0 15.3 17.7
All Engineering 1771.07 5.2 1939.16 5.4 1.3 6.3 10.7 9.5
Vehicles, Parts & Transport Equip. 999.48 3.0 1104.59 3.1 2.2 7.2 7.3 10.5
Gems & Jewellery 781.82 2.3 922.55 2.6 -7.4 13.6 -0.1 18.0
Construction 1232.28 3.6 1314.12 3.6 0.6 3.3 2.2 6.6
Infrastructure 12534.56 37.1 12803.68 35.6 4.0 5.6 11.1 2.1
Other Industries 2777.16 8.2 2846.03 7.9 8.4 16.3 22.2 2.5
Industries 33776.66 100.0 36008.76 100.0 4.4 5.4 13.0 6.6
Source: Reserve Bank of India, figure in Rs Billion

 

Liabilities With schedule commercial banks (Rs. bn)
Total
Deposits
Demand
Deposits
Time
Deposits
Borrowings
from RBI
Liabilities To
Banks
Other
Demand &
Time Liabilities
Other
Borrowings
Jan-22 160325 19122 141203 943 2666 6058 2716
Feb-22 162175 19640 142536 961 2520 6383 2767
Mar-22 164653 20727 143926 943 2586 6408 2746
Apr-22 167816 21144 146671 943 2824 6641 2861
May-22 165972 19853 146119 944 2776 6549 3933
Jun-22 165921 19537 146384 945 2814 6404 3714
Jul-22 169723 20420 149303 944 2733 6605 3536
Aug-22 169939 20230 149709 983 2782 6622 4695
Sep-22 175438 22340 153098 1125 2985 7257 4565
Oct-22 172765 21221 151544 1159 2937 6869 5262
Nov-22 173294 20790 152504 967 3188 6837 4954
Dec-22 177338 22018 155320 1275 3263 7526 4404
Jan-23 177194 21567 155627 1216 3262 7317 4598
Feb-23 178619 21507 157111 1090 3448 7629 4665
Mar-23 180439 21804 158635 1651 3518 7897 4453
Apr-23 184829 22577 162252 730 3426 7988 4654
May-23 184944 21827 163117 673 3648 7826 4567
Jun-23 191560 24489 167071 509 3589 8249 4750
Jul-23 191670 22580 169090 450 5065 8208 7843
Aug-23 192410 22123 170286 933 5084 8907 8181
Sep-23 197010 24088 172922 1703 5267 9307 7915
Oct-23 195609 22932 172677 1607 5083 8689 8377
17-Nov-23 196519 23072 173447 1310 5002 8872 8425
15-Dec-23 197916 23195 174721 1558 5400 10327 7620

 

Assets with Schedule commercial Banks (Rs. bn)
Cash
in Hand
Balance
with RBI
Assets
with
Banking System
Investments in Govt.
Securities
Inv in Other
Securities
Food Credit Loans Inland Bills
Purchased & Discounted
Foreign Bills Purchased
& Discounted
Non
Food
Credit
Total
Bank
Credit
Jan-22 888 6813 2409 45794 12 824 112489 1706 494 113866 114690
Feb-22 883 6645 2328 46690 12 682 114174 1793 471 115755 116437
Mar-22 859 6834 2436 47282 8 550 116513 1903 497 118363 118913
Apr-22 1009 7402 2731 48261 10 527 117622 1872 515 119482 120009
May-22 979 7617 2785 48296 8 507 118272 1880 476 120121 120627
Jun-22 1015 7765 2907 48864 8 409 119591 1817 497 121495 121904
Jul-22 1085 8345 2769 50135 8 323 121264 1947 482 123370 123694
Aug-22 1085 7641 2925 50665 8 278 122210 1912 465 124309 124587
Sep-22 1087 8449 3068 50699 8 192 127834 2019 471 130133 130325
Oct-22 1138 7818 3018 50651 8 320 126272 1918 458 128327 128647
Nov-22 1065 8088 3171 50714 8 547 127711 1877 435 129476 130023
Dec-22 986 8416 3165 50952 9 540 130683 1923 463 132529 133069
Jan-23 1104 8136 3148 51938 9 502 131065 1859 451 132874 133375
Feb-23 972 7980 3230 53367 8 353 132121 1934 448 134150 134503
Mar-23 903 8099 3266 54143 8 199 134249 2023 480 136553 136752
Apr-23 901 8904 3381 54582 7 277 136200 2103 490 138516 138793
May-23 1186 8522 3310 55428 8 336 136460 2125 439 138689 139025
Jun-23 1139 8712 3354 56699 8 279 141209 2178 450 143558 143837
Jul-23 969 8993 3499 58386 8 208 145280 2157 435 147663 147871
Aug-23 931 10104 3472 59008 8 194 146627 2131 416 148980 149173
Sep-23 950 9692 3755 60282 7 187 150537 2289 410 153050 153237
Oct-23 961 9070 3532 60234 7 208 152201 2293 389 154675 154883
17-Nov-23 889 9108 3590 60690 8 403 153507 2321 381 155805 156208
15-Dec-23 844 9364 3719 59598 8 425 155318 2355 380 157628 158053

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