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Sector Trend - Outlook
18-Sep-15
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Sector
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Cement: Dismal Q1 performance on subdued demand
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Outlook
Cement demand continues to remain lacklustre as large infrastructure and real estate companies are extremely cautious about fresh investments, given the high debt on their books. The sluggish demand environment is likely to persist in near term due to monsoon and adverse macro factors. The scenario is expected to improve from the second half of FY 2016 owing to heightened government focus on infrastructure development and other initiatives (Housing for All, Smart Cities and concrete roads) and potential softening of interest rates to provide impetus to private participation.
South-based cement companies hopefully may get benefits of production discipline, fairly stable demand and limited capacity addition in the region. Also, pick-p in construction in Seemandhra and Telangana is likely to spur some demand and benefits southern cement players. It is estimated that building activities in the two new states are expected to give rise to demand of 23 mt in the next two years. The two state governments are set to procure about 3 mt.
The cement industry is hoping for better days as the government has announced a series of steps to accelerate infrastructure development especially roads. For FY 2016, the government targets to award highway projects worth Rs 3.5 lakh crore within the first six months. Apart from stepping up high building, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has put on the fast track the ambitious Bharat Mala project to build 5,000 km of border and coastal roads for an estimated Rs 55,000 crore. In June, the National Highways and Infrastructure Development Corporation of India (NHIDCI) have invited bids for detailed project reports for 2,100 km stretch of roads. Bids were invited for DPR in Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Sikkim and Tripura. The DPRs will identify technical, economic and financial viability of the projects.
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