Sector Trend - Outlook     28-Dec-10
Glass: Margins weaken on spike in costs, but demand remains strong
The glass industry is witnessing strong demand growth, but over capacities, Chinese competition prevented full pass on of rise in costs, leading to pressure on margins
India is one of the world's fastest growing economies. 2010-11 seems to be a year for cautious optimism. India's economy seems to be back on the growth path, even though it is yet to return to the height of 9% plus growth.

The manufacturing, capital goods and consumer durables sectors have all grown over the last year; economic indicators point to that growth being sustained over the current year. The growth in the country's population and higher standard of living are driving forward the subcontinent's construction and automobile sectors in particular, while creating an increase in the demand of consumer goods. In all these areas, glass plays a significant role, for example as a modern construction material in architecture, as packaging material or as automotive glass. The total glass industry is worth INR 180 billion in 2010.

Varied nature of glass makes its useful across different segments Glass can be broadly classified into flat glass, container glass, specialty glass and fibre glass on the Market basis of manufacturing process and its use In terms of volume of glass consumed, building products is by far the largest sector, LE Float glass is fast replacing flat glass all over and accounts of total consumption.

India's Rs 775 billion packaging industry has been growing at a CAGR of 15%, which is likely to increase to 20%. The container glass industry constitutes 6-7% of the total packaging industry and has been growing at 7-8% CAGR. The container glass industry offers huge growth potential, given the expected acceleration in growth rate of user industries and low threat from substitutes.

Float glass has emerged as the preferred flat glass product. It accounts for 90% of total consumption with 12% CAGR in demand. Per capita consumption is only 0.8 kg as against 8 kg in China and 10 kg in USA. The usage of glass in housing as well as commercial buildings is on the rise due to rising focus on aesthetics and time saving. In Eleventh Five Year Plan, the Planning Commission estimates the number of urban dwelling units to increase from 58.8 million in 2006-07 to 66.1 million in 2011-12, an annual increase of around 1.5 million units during the period. Looking at the above factors the demand looks encouraging.

The Float glass industry has been growing steadily over the years, except for the slight change in trend during 2008-09, where the sales declined by 2.15% to 2000 tpd. The decline was mainly during January to March 2009, with 8.38% decline to 1885 tpd. During the period January to march 2010 the sales grew by 36% to 3135 tpd compared to 2008-09.

The float glass industry is currently dominated by Saint Gobain, Modi Guardian and Asahi who have a capacity of 3,150 tpd. Capacity utilization is rising fast (up 30% in past 12 months) due to strong demand from automobiles and construction sectors. Float glass demand is expected to increase at 12-15% CAGR in the coming 3-5 years.

The growth factors of glass are growth in income, increasing retail estate, growing use in automotive industry, growing use in packaging industry, glass used widely in the solar products, glass used for energy conservation and its qualitative aspect. Glass industry in India is poised to grow rapidly owing to its extensive use in the numerous sectors. The market is driven by increasing disposable income and willingness to spend on better living standards due to rising aesthetic sense among consumers as well as glass being the preferred medium of packaging. The key challenges identified include import from China and recyclable nature of glass.

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