Analyst Meet / AGM     15-Feb-16
Conference Call
Ramkrishna Forgings
Inventory correction pains now seem to be over
Ramkrishna Forgings held its conference call on 15th February 2015 after it declared its results for December 2015 quarter.

Naresh Jalan, Managing Director and Alok Kumar Sarda, CFO of the company addressed the call.

Highlights of the call:

Q3 was most challenging. In December 2015 quarter sales fell 4% to Rs 210.04 crore. PAT dived 48% to Rs 9.19 crore.

Sales fell due to global conditions especially northern America.

Inventory correction pains now seem to be over.

For the nine months sales grew 33% to Rs 654.01 crore. PAT grew 28% to Rs 43.78 crore.

Domestic business was robust. The company added capacity in domestic business and expects this business to grow in FY 2017.

Difference in pricing is due to pricing adjustments of raw materials.

EBITDA fall is due to inventory losses to the tune of 200 basis points Also small volume adjustments would have given better margin.

With the new 12500 tons press starting in last quarter, capex is almost over. Leverage of new capacity is yet to come in which has also impacted Pat and OPM margins.

60% of the 12500 tons capacity is tied up.

In 2017 the company will have entire capacity available.

The company has every CV manufacturer as its clients.

The company is looking to add Coal India and NTPC as its clients for domestic business

Export markets realization per ton has come down due to raw material prices.

With all 4 presses together the company can do 45000 tons of production.

By Q4 2017, the new presses will work at 70-80% capacity.

Total tonnage sales were 18500 during the quarter. Exports accounted for 6450 tons and domestic was 12050 tons.

q-o-q the quarter tonnage has fallen by 20%.

In Q1 of FY 2017 the company's exports can go back to more than 8000 toms.

Raw material is a completely pass through. It is basically one quarter adjustment.

Currency fluctuation is not a pass on but it depends on contract to contracts.

The market share in domestic market depends on clientele and product mix. Average in Tata Motors it is 100% in some components and in some it is 30% so it cannot give exact break up as it depends on component to component.

The company is already seeing some improvement happening in export truck market.

In FY 2017 the company is not revising its guidance of 115000 tons. Guidance for FY 2016 works out to 80000 tons as it adds 12500 tons and 6300 tons of capacity.

In domestic business the company is looking at 25-30% growth in FY 2017.

50% of its domestic business comes from Tata Motors, Second largest customer is Volvo and third largest is Ashok Leyland.

Interest cost (finance cost as a whole) will not be more than Rs 55-60 crore and depreciation will not be more than Rs 75 crore in FY 2016.

The company is looking at Rs 280-300 crore EBITDA if the market is good.

In domestic CV market the company expects growth of 20% in FY 2017.

Raw material prices are unlikely to go down from here.

Domestic tonnage sales grew but revenues were flattish as machined component revenues were down.

There are no slippages in any customers. Whatever slippages are there is due to demand side issues.

Contribution of the new presses will be 40-50% from the 12500 tons press and that from 6300 tons will be 50-60%.

In domestic business non uto sales is close to 10% which is into railways and mining. In railways business the company has same growth every year. This year also it expects same growth.

Next year Europe will add a large chunk of exports business. In two years US and Europe would contribute equally.

Dana is the company's single largest customers in Europe right now. The company has added new customers in Europe and this from coming quarter onwards it won't remain the largest contributing customer for its European business.

The company does not feel that there can be any more price cut in steel prices as already many steel companies in overseas markets are bleeding

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