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Analyst Meet / AGM
23-May-18
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Conference Call
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Petronet LNG
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Expects LNG demand to grow at 7-8% annually
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Petronet LNG conducted conference call to discuss results for the quarter ended March 2018 and way forward. Mr. V. K. Mishra, Director (Finance), Mr. Mukesh Gupta, Vice President (F&A) and Mr. Pankaj Wadhwa- Sr. VP Marketing of the company addressed the call.
Highlights of the Concall
- Volumes during the quarter was 212.7 thousand btu (TBTUs) in Q4FY'18 compared to 180 thousand btu in Q4FY'17 and 223 thousand btu in Q3FY'18.
- Dahej terminal volume was 206.8 thousand btu while Kochi terminal handled 5.9 TBTUs of LNG.
- Out of total Dahej volumes- 115 TBTUs were from long-term supply, 7.1TBTUs were for short-term supply and 84.7 TBTUs were re-gasification quantities.
- Current Dahej utilization was 110% compared to 94% in Q4FY17 and 112% in Q3FY18.
- The company sees RLNG (Re Gasified Liquefied Natural Gas) demand strong while Dahej terminal is not able to meet requirements. LNG prices remain competitive among liquid fuel replacement customers like petchem, refinery and fertilizers etc. even though oil linked term LNG prices are up.
- Going forward fertilizer (Urja Ganga), power and CGD (City gas distribution) sectors are expected to contribute to demand growth. With so many cities under 9th Round, CGD demand can be significant and will indirectly lead to RLNG demand through swapping
- The company expects LNG demand to grow at 7-8% annually
- The company expects Mundra LNG terminal volumes to come by CY18 end or CY19, but unlikely to be threat to Dahej. Dahej is ready to face competition and remains most competitive tariff wise.
- The company has no volume or tariff related concerns in Dahej as terminal is booked at 100% plus capacity with off-takers of 15.75 million tonne (mt) tied up. The company expects 17.5 mt expansion is expected to be completed by March-June 2019. New capacity's tariff will be similar to existing. Remain confident of placing those volumes as demand is strong. Dahej terminal offers operational flexibility to users
- Kochi terminal volumes are down as FACT stopped purchases. BPCL refinery is taking 2mmscmd and can hit a 2.5mmscmd peak. Kochi regas tariff was hiked by 5% in April.
- GAIL's Kochi Mangalore pipeline is expected to be ready by December 2018 and volume uptick would be from Q4FY19.
- The company have submitted proposal and awaiting response from Bangladesh government for a 7 mt US $1 billion capex terminal there but seeks assurance for 100% capacity utilization. It will be a rental model with no involvement by the company on gas sourcing and/or marketing. Financing will require guarantee. Demand in Bangladesh is 50 mt and the country has raised domestic gas prices to align same with market rate.
- In Sri Lanka, project details are being finalized. It will be a 2.5 mt FSRU at US $300 million capex and LNG will replace liquid fuels in power generation. Another Chinese player is also bidding there
- The company expects capex for FY19 and FY20 at Rs 400 crore unless Bangladesh, Sri Lanka etc materializes. The new tank in Dahej will take around 3 to 3.5 years to complete at Rs 650 crore capex.
- The company is in discussion with IOCL etc for LNG through trucking.
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