The price of India’s basket of crude oil moved up 7.5% to US$ 89.46 per barrel in April 2024 from March 2024. The price of India’s basket of crude oil is up 6.8% in April 2024 from US$ 83.76 per barrel in April 2023. However, the price has dipped 6.2% to US$ 83.87 per barrel in early May 2024.

Crude oil production

India's crude oil production increased 2.0% to 2.50 million tonnes (mt) in March 2024 over March 2023. Crude oil output of ONGC fell 1.3% to 1.63 mt, while that of Oil India moved up 5.5% to 0.29 mt. ONGC's offshore output declined 3.1% to 1.12 mt, while onshore production increased 2.8% to 0.52 mt. The crude oil production of private and joint venture (JV) companies moved up 10.7% to 0.58 mt in March 2024.

Crude oil output rose increased 0.6% to 29.36 mt in April-March period of the fiscal year ended March 2024 (April-March 2023-24), snapping 1.7% fall recorded in the corresponding period of last year. Output of ONGC dipped 1.5% to 19.21 mt, while that of Oil India moved up 6.0% to 3.34 mt. However, the crude oil production of private companies increased 4.2% to 6.80 mt in April-March 2023-24 over April-March 2022-23.

Crude oil refinery output

India's crude oil refinery output declined 0.3% to 24.14 mt in March 2024 over March 2023. The output of public sector refineries declined 1.7% to 13.72 mt, while the output of private refineries increased 1.7% to 10.42 mt in March 2024.

Among public refineries, the output of Bharat Petroleum Corporation dipped 9.1% to 3.09 mt and Indian Oil Corporation 3.1% to 6.15 mt. However, the output of Numaligarh Refineries increased 46.5% to 0.29 mt and Chennai Petroleum Corporation 5.2% to 1.03 mt. Further, the refinery output of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation rose 4.4% to 1.75 mt and Mangalore Refineries 3.5% to 1.40 mt in March 2024.

Among private refiners, the output of Reliance Petroleum slipped 0.4% to 7.54 mt, while that of Essar Oil increased 3.8% to 1.70 mt in March 2024 over March 2023. The output of HMEL Bhatinda gained 14.3% to 1.19 mt in March 2024.

The cumulative refinery output increased 3.5% to 272.13 mt in April-March 2023-24. The output of public refineries moved up 3.4% to 156.63 mt, while that of private refineries increased 6.4% to 12.30 mt. The refinery output of JV refineries eased 0.7% to 2.01 mt in April-March 2023-24. Among public refineries, the output of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation increased 17.3%, Chennai Petroleum Corporation 4.0%, Bharat Petroleum Corporation 2.7% and Indian Oil Corporation 2.5%, while that of Mangalore Refineries climbed down 3.1% and Numaligarh Refineries 18.6%.

The overall capacity utilization declined to 103.8% in March 2024 compared with 107.8% in March 2023, while it was higher at 102.6% in April-March 2023-24 compared with 101.6% in April-March 2022-23.

Natural gas production

India's natural gas production increased 6.2% to 3.14 billion cubic meters (bcm) in March 2024 over a year ago. Natural gas output of ONGC dipped 4.7% to 1.62 bcm, while that of Oil India rose 6.2% to 0.28 bcm. Further, the natural gas production of private and JV companies moved up 24.6% to 1.24 bcm in March 2024. Natural gas output gained 5.8% to 36.44 bcm in April-March 2024-24 over April-September 2022-23.

Fuel Product consumption

India's fuel product consumption or sales declined 0.6% to 21.09 mt in March 2024 over a year ago. The sales of others slipped 23.3% to 1.50 mt, petcoke 16.7% to 1.63 mt, bitumen 6.8% to 0.99 mt and fuel oil 9.6% to 0.53 mt. Further, the consumption of light diesel oil (LDO) declined 15.2% to 0.07 mt and lubes/greases 1.0% to 0.42 mt. However, the consumption of diesel increased 3.1% to 8.04 mt, petrol 6.9% to 3.32 mt, LPG 8.6% to 2.61 mt, ATF 10.2% to 0.76 mt, naphtha 5.5% to 1.19 mt and kerosene 6.7% to 0.03 mt in March 2024.

Consumption or sales of fuel products increased 4.6% to 233.28 mt in April-March 2023-24 over April-March 2022-23. Sales of diesel jumped 4.4% to 89.65 mt, petrol 6.4% to 37.22 mt, naphtha 14.3% to 13.87 mt and LPG 4.0% to 29.65 mt. Further, the consumption of ATF improved 11.8% to 8.25 mt, bitumen 9.9% to 8.84 mt, petcoke 4.2% to 19.12 mt, lubes/greases 9.1% to 4.08 mt and LDO 8.0% to 0.78 mt. However, the consumption of others declined 6.4% to 14.83 mt, fuel oil 6.2% to 6.52 mt and kerosene 1.6% to 0.48 mt in April-March 2023-24.

Trade in fuel products

India’s import of crude oil was flat at 20.69 mt in March 2024 over March 2023. Imports of petroleum products increased 5% to 3.83 mt, driven by jump in the imports of LPG 13%, petcoke 27%, bitumen 26% and lubes 7%. On the other hand, the exports of petroleum products declined 6% to 5.66 mt, driven by decline in exports of diesel 2%, petrol 9%, naphtha 3% and other 31%, while exports of fuel oil increased 77% and ATF 1% in March 2024.

Outlook

The crude oil prices have corrected sharply in May 2024, while snapping sharp increase for last four straight months driven by lingering uncertainty regarding the outlook for oil demand on account of signs of weakening economic growth. The overall global oil demand growth has been revised downward by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), with projections now indicating a more balanced market. The EIA anticipates faster-than-expected output growth from regions outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), coupled with lower demand expectations from developed economies, reflecting a nuanced understanding of the complex dynamics influencing oil markets. However, the geopolitical uncertainties cause volatility in the oil markets with its ability to disrupt supply chains and impact regional stability. Going forward, the production policy of OPEC+ is key focus area and decision on the same have major implications for global oil supply dynamics and market sentiment.