The price of India’s basket of crude oil rose 3.0% to US$ 81.62 per barrel in February 2024 from January 2024. It rose 1.9% to US$ 83.18 per barrel in early March 2024. The price of India’s basket of crude oil is down 0.8% from US$ 82.28 per barrel in February 2023.

Crude oil production

India's crude oil production rose 0.4% to 2.50 million tonnes (mt) in January 2024 over January 2023. Crude oil output of ONGC fell 1.9% to 1.54 mt, while that of Oil India moved up 7.4% to 0.29 mt. PSU total output declined 0.5% to 1.83 mt. The crude oil production of private and joint venture (JV) companies dipped 5.9% to 0.48 mt in January 2024.

Crude oil output declined 0.2% to 24.53 mt in April-January period of the fiscal year ending March 2024 (April-January 2023-24). Output of ONGC dipped 2.3% to 15.16 mt, while that of Oil India moved up 6.5% to 2.80 mt. PSU total output declined 1.2% to 17.94 mt. The crude oil production of private companies declined 9.7% to 4.77 mt in April-January 2023-24 over April-January 2022-23.

Crude oil refinery output

India's crude oil refinery output declined 1.1% to 22.57 mt in January 2024 over January 2023. The output of public sector refineries dipped 2.9% to 15.25 mt, while the output of private refineries increased 2.9% to 7.32 mt in January 2024.

Among public refineries, the output of Indian Oil Corporation declined 6.9% to 6.09 mt, Bharat Petroleum Corporation 3.5% to 3.48 mt and Numaligarh Refineries 7.7% to 0.26 mt. The refinery output of Mangalore Refineries moved up 2.0% to 1.53 mt and Hindustan Petroleum 3.9% to 2.89 mt, while that of Chennai Petroleum Corporation rose 1.1% to 1.00 mt in January 2024.

Among private refiners, the output of Reliance Petroleum increased 3.6% to 5.58 mt, while that of Essar Oil rose 0.8% to 1.73 mt in January 2024.

The cumulative refinery output rose 2.8% to 217.296 mt in April-January 2023-24. The output of public refineries moved up 2.9% to 148.10 mt, while that of private refineries rose 2.5% to 69.197 mt in April-January 2023-24.

Among public refineries, the output of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation increased 10.5%, Bharat Petroleum Corporation 4.0%, Chennai Petroleum Corporation 2.2% and Indian Oil 2.3%, while that of Mangalore Refineries declined 4.7%% and Numaligarh Refineries 25.8%.

Product wise, the output of diesel declined 6.8% to 9.52 mt, petrol 1.8% to 3.75 mt, LPG 0.4% to 1.11 mt in January 2024. Further, the output of petcoke fell 10.8% to 1.28 mt, fuel oil 11.5% to 0.70 mt and other 12.4% to 2.59 mt. However, the output of ATF increased 9.7% to 1.54 mt, naphtha 10.5% to 1.689 mt, kerosene 30.8% to 0.10 mt and bitumen 4.1% to 0.46 mt.

Natural gas production

India's natural gas production increased 5.5% to 3.139 billion cubic meters (bcm) in January 2024 over a year ago. Onshore natural gas output declined 2.7% to 0.856 bcm, while offshore natural gas output jumped 12.0% to 2.28 bcm. Natural gas output rose 5.2% to 30.35 bcm in April-January 2023-24 over April-January 2022-23. Onshore output rose 2.4% to 8.89 bcm and offshore output increased 9.5% to 21.46 bcm in April-January 2023-24.

Fuel Product consumption

India's fuel product consumption or sales increased 6.6% to 19.72 mt in February 2024 over a year ago. The sales of diesel jumped 6.3% to 7.44 mt, petrol 8.9% to 3.02 mt, LPG 8.5% to 2.59 mt and naphtha 12.3% to 1.19 mt. Further, the consumption of bitumen increased 13.2% to 0.91 mt, ATF 13.0% to 0.70 mt, others 4.2% to 1.40 mt, petcoke 2.5% to 1.53 mt, light diesel oil (LDO) 12.5% to 0.06 mt and kerosene 9.1% to 0.04 mt. However, the consumption of fuel oil declined 10.0% to 0.51 mt and lubes/greases 7.5% to 0.32 mt in February 2024.

Consumption or sales of fuel products increased 5.2% to 212.22 mt in April-February 2023-24 over April-February 2022-23. Sales of diesel jumped 4.5% to 81.62 mt, petrol 6.4% to 33.90 mt, naphtha 14.6% to 12.66 mt and petcoke 6.4% to 17.49 mt. Further, the consumption of bitumen improved 14.8% to 7.87 mt, LPG 3.6% to 27.04 mt, ATF 12.1% to 7.49 mt, lubes/greases 7.5% to 3.64 mt and LDO 11.0% to 0.72 mt. However, the consumption of kerosene declined 2.2% to 0.45 mt, others 3.6% to 13.36 mt and fuel oil 5.8% to 6.00 mt in April-February 2023-24.

Trade in fuel products

India’s import of crude oil increased 7% to 21.39 mt in January 2024 over January 2023. Imports of petroleum products rose 1% to 3.97 mt, driven by jump in the imports of bitumen, petcoke and other. On the other hand, the exports of petroleum products increased 7.5% to 4.84 mt, driven by jump in exports of diesel 1.6% and ATF 28%, fuel oil 38%, naphtha 27.9% and other products 82.3%, while exports of petrol declined 16.4% in January 2024.

Outlook

The Brent Crude oil price has recovered above US$ 80 per barrel mark in February 2024 and sustained at elevated levels in early March 2024. The expectations of interest rate cut from US Federal Reserve in 2024 have supported the rise in the crude oil prices. The rise in prices is also caused by the fact that OPEC+ will continue to withhold 2.2 million bpd from the global market for another three months.