Market Commentary     19-Apr-24
The Week That Was
Market tumbles due to geopolitical tensions
Indian equity indices ended with significant losses during a truncated week amid geopolitical tensions. The benchmark indices were lower for three out of four trading sessions during the week. Nifty settled below 22,150 mark.

In the week ended on Friday, 19 April 2024, the S&P BSE Sensex tumbled 1,156.57 points to settle at 773088.33. The Nifty 50 index dropped 369.60 points or 1.64% to close at 22,149.80. The BSE Mid-Cap index slipped 2.21% to end at 40,004.52. The BSE Small-Cap index declined 0.96% to close at 45,433.79.

Weekly Index Movement:

The domestic equity benchmarks ended with deep losses on Monday as tensions flared in the Middle East following Iran's attack on Israel. Worries about a wider conflict spooked investors, the barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex slipped 845.12 points or 1.14% to 73,399.78. The Nifty 50 index lost 246.90 points or 1.10% to 22,272.50.

Stock markets got slammed on Tuesday, declining for a third straight session. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex slipped 456.10 points or 0.62% to 72,943.68. The Nifty 50 index lost 124.60 points or 0.56% to 22,147.90.

The domestic market remained closed on Wednesday, 17 April 2024, on account of Ram Navami.

Domestic equity market experienced significant volatility on Thursday, extending their losing streak to a fourth consecutive day. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, was slipped 454.69 points or 0.62% to 72,488.99.

The domestic equity barometers closed with significant gains on Friday, snapping a four-day declining streak. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex jumped 599.34 points or 0.83% to 73,088.33. The Nifty 50 index gained 151.15 points or 0.69% to 22,147.

Economy:

India's combined exports (merchandise and services) in March 2024 are estimated at $70.21 billion. This represents a decrease of 3.01% compared to March 2023. Conversely, overall imports in March 2024 are estimated at $73.12 billion, reflecting a decline of 6.11% year-on-year.

For the entire fiscal year 2023-24 (April-March), India's combined exports reached an estimated $776.68 billion. This translates to a marginal growth of 0.04% compared to FY 2022-23. Overall imports for the fiscal year are estimated at $854.80 billion, signifying a decrease of 4.81% year-on-year.

The overall trade deficit is estimated at $78.12 billion, reflecting a significant decline of 35.77% compared to the deficit of $121.62 billion recorded in FY 2022-23.

India's wholesale inflation rate quickened to three-month high of 0.53% in February, mainly driven by food and primary articles, data released by the commerce ministry on April 15 showed. Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation stood at 0.2% in February and 1.34% in March 2023.

India's retail inflation eased to 4.85% on an annual basis in March as against 5.09% in the previous month, data showed on Friday. Meanwhile, the industrial production surged to a four-month high of 5.7% in February compared with 4.3% in the previous month.

The International Monetary Fund raised India’s FY25 GDP growth forecast by 30 bps to 6.8% from its January forecast of 6.5%, citing bullish domestic demand conditions and a rising working-age population. IMF sees India's FY26 GDP growth at 6.5%. The global financial agency sees India's retail inflation at 4.6% in FY25 and 4.2% in FY26.

Monsoon Update:

India is forecast to receive an above-average monsoon this year (June-September) with rainfall predicted to be 106% of the historical average (87 cm). This is according to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) who announced this positive outlook on April 15th.

Stocks in Spotlight:

Infosys declined 3.83%. The IT major reported a strong 30% year-over-year increase in its net profit for the quarter ending March 2024. The company's net profit reached Rs 7,969 crore, compared to Rs 6,128 crore in the same quarter last year. Revenue also grew slightly, with revenue from operations reaching Rs 37,923 crore, up 1% from the previous year's quarter.

Infosys forecasts its constant currency revenue growth to be in the range of 1-3% for FY25. The company also expects operating margins to stay between 20-22% during the current fiscal year.

The company's board has recommended a final dividend of Rs 20 per share for FY24, along with an additional special dividend of Rs 8 per share.

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) fell 2.93%. The company announced that its consolidated net profit increased 12.44% to Rs 12,434 crore in Q4 FY24 as compared with Rs 11,058 crore in Q3 FY24. Revenue from operations increased 1.08% QoQ to Rs 61,237 crore in Q4 FY24.

Adani Enterprises declined 3.7%. The company on Friday announced that its wholly owned subsidiary, Adani Global will acquire a 49% stake in Adani Esyasoft Smart Solutions, Abu Dhabi.

Bajaj Auto tumbled 2.19%. The auto major’s standalone net profit jumped 35.11% to Rs 1,936 crore on 28.97% rise in revenue from operations to Rs 11,484.68 crore in Q4 FY24 over Q4 FY23. The revenue growth was led by the broad based buoyancy that was sustained on the domestic business and aided by steady exports, notwithstanding the continued challenges in overseas markets. Meanwhile, the company’s board has approved a final dividend of Rs 80 per share for FY24. The record date for the dividend is Friday, 14 June 2024.

Nestle India dropped 4.78%, following news reports that the company added sugar to its Cerelac baby cereal in India, but not in its main European and UK markets.

In a joint investigation between Public Eye and International Baby Food Action Network (IBFAN) sent baby food samples in Asia, Latin America, and Africa from Nestle to a testing laboratory in Belgium. The study said that Nestle added the sugar equivalent to an average of 4 gram per sugar cube in wheat-based cereals, Cerelac. It is made for children aged between six months and two years.

Power Grid Corporation of India fell 1.98% after its board has approved the raising of bonds as POWERGRID bonds issue(s) upto Rs 12,000 crore during FY 2024-25.

Further, the power – transmission firm has been declared as the successful bidder under tariff based competitive bidding to establish inter-state transmission system for three projects on build, own operate and transfer (BOOT) basis. Additionally, the company has also received letters of Intent (LoI) for the same projects.

Larsen &Tourbo tumbled 4.52%. The EPC major announced that it has completed the sale of its entire stake in L&T Infrastructure Development Projects (LTIDPL), a joint venture with Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPP Investments).

ITC fell 1.42% after the company announced that its wholly owned subsidiary, ITC Infotech India has entered into Share Purchase Agreement to acquire 100% stake in Blazeclan Technologies for total consideration of Rs 485 crore.

Global Market:

China’s economy grew stronger than expected at the start of this year, partly thanks to robust factory activity. Gross domestic product grew by 5.3% in the first quarter from a year ago, according to the National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday. It also accelerated from the 5.2% growth in the previous three months. China has set an annual growth target of around 5% for 2024.

Retail sales in the United States grew more than anticipated last month. US retail sales picked up by 0.7% in March to $709.6 billion, after February's increase was revised to 0.9%, said the Commerce Department.

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