|
A continued recovery in local housing market clubbed with steady metal prices is auguring well for the consumer durables sector as a whole. However, elevated interest rates can moderate the demand for white goods in near term. Further clarity regarding the same will emerge in the upcoming festive season. A tepid performance on the agri front can also pinch the rural demand by capping agricultural incomes. According to a latest update from the Indian Meteorological Department or IMD, during August 2023, India as a whole received 162.7 mm rainfall, which is 36% less than its Long Period Average (LPA) 254.9 mm based on data 1971-2020. This can weigh on the yields of the kharir crops in coming harvest season.
All-India House Price Index Inches Up to 5.1% in Q1FY24: RBI data
The all-India House Price Index (HPI) rose by 5.1 per cent in the April-June quarter of 2023-24 as compared with 3.4 per cent a year ago, according to data released by the Reserve Bank of India on Thursday. The RBI releases quarterly HPI based on transaction-level data received from the registration authorities in ten major cities. The cities are Ahmedabad, Bengaluru, Chennai, Delhi, Jaipur, Kanpur, Kochi, Kolkata, Lucknow, and Mumbai. "All India HPI growth (y-o-y) inched up to 5.1 percent in Q1:2023-24 from 4.6 percent in the previous quarter and 3.4 percent a year ago; annual growth in HPI varied widely across the cities - ranging from the high growth of 14.9 percent (Delhi) to a contraction of 6.6 percent (Kolkata)," the RBI said. On a sequential (quarter-on-quarter) basis, all-India HPI increased by 2.6 percent in Q1:2023-24; eight of the 10 cities witnessed housing registration price increase vis-a-vis the previous quarter.
Consumer confidence turns a shade lower after persistent recovery for almost two years says RBI
Reserve Bank released the results of July 2023 round of its bi-monthly consumer confidence survey (CCS). The survey obtains current perceptions (vis-à-vis a year ago) and one year ahead expectations on general economic situation, employment scenario, overall price situation and own income and spending across 19 major cities. After persistent recovery for almost two years, consumer confidence for current period, as reflected in the current situation index (CSI), stood a shade lower than that witnessed in the previous survey round; improvement in respondents' sentiment on income and spending was offset by somewhat higher pessimism on general economic and employment situation. Going forward, households expect improvement in general economic, employment and income conditions; they turned less pessimistic on one year ahead price situation vis-à-vis May 2023 round of the survey. The future expectation index (FEI) remained in optimistic terrain and recorded a marginal rise in the latest survey round. Sentiments on current income improved further and moved to optimistic zone for the first time in four years; future earnings expectations remain buoyant.
Outlook:
The output in domestic consumer durables sector is rising ahead of the festive season. The latest data showed that India's index of industrial production for consumer durables edged up to 116.70 in June 2023, up 1.21% compared to May 2023 though it is down by around 7% compared to June 2022. However, the year on year decline could be owing to the seasonal factors as the festive season is set for a delayed start this year. Demand for televisions looks well supported this year ahead of the much awaited cricket world cup 2023.
|