Sector Trends     24-Mar-22
Consumer Durables: Output Turns Lower
Soaring metal and fuel prices will likely act as a drag on consumer durables sector in near term.
Soaring metal and fuel prices will likely act as a drag on consumer durables sector in near term. Consumer durables output contracted 3.30% in January 2022 as against 2.72% contraction a month ago, as per the latest index of industrial production data. A massive jump has been seen in metals like Copper and Nickel following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and crude oil prices have also hit more than a decade high. However, a massive drop in India's Covid-19 count will likely keep the demand supported for white goods.

The post-pandemic economic recovery, faster upgrades in the entry tier and pent-up demand aided by festive sales contributed to growth of TV market in India. The country registered a 24% YoY in TV shipments, and a 55% YoY growth in 2021 in smart TV space according to Counterpoint Research. The share of TVs which are above 40 inches reached 42% in 2021, compared to 31% a year ago, which implies Indian consumers are moving towards bigger-size TVs, especially for watching OTT content and communicating virtually.

RBI Current Situation Index Rises Marginally

The Reserve Bank released the results of its Consumer Confidence Survey (CCS) for the January 2022 round. The survey was conducted during January 02 to January 11, 2022 in 13 major cities. Consumer confidence for the current period recorded gradual improvement for third successive round of the survey though it remained in pessimistic zone; the current situation Index (CSI) increased marginally on the back of better sentiments on general economic situation, household income and spending.

The CSI hit 63.7 in latest reading compared to 62.3 in previous update. One year ahead outlook, as reflected by the future expectations index, remained in optimism zone; the index, however, moderated as the latest survey period coincided with the surge in COVID-19 infection cases in January 2022. Households reported further increase in overall expenditure driven by higher essential spending; their sentiments on non-essential outlay, however, remained subdued.

Outlook:

After two tough years, the consumer spending will likely tick up in coming months and the overall industry is gearing up for the revival. Group M expects that GroupM predicted the total ad spending across media in India to grow 22.2% to Rs 107,987 crore in 2022, with digital overtaking TV as the largest advertising medium with a 45% share of the adex.In 2021, the total advertising expenditure across media grew 37% to ₹74,231 crore, with fast moving consumer goods, ecommerce and new-age companies emerging as the largest contributors to the growth. This will likely keep the consumer mood elevated and will also spur demand for white goods. Private consumption growth contracted to 7% in Q3FY22 against 10.2% in Q2FY22 but picked up 14.5% on sequential basis, according to latest Gross Domestic Product data. The domestic real estate market is witnessing a healthy surge in demand in 2022.

Tables and Charts:

Consumer Durables - Index of Industrial Production

Month 2021 - 22 2020 - 21 2019 - 20
Index % Chg.YoY % Chg.MoM Index % Chg.YoY % Chg.MoM Index % Chg.YoY % Chg.MoM
Apr 103.3 1,778.18 -22.33 5.5 -95.67 -93.39 127.1 2.17 -3.49
May 71.6 80.35 -30.69 39.7 -70.33 621.82 133.8 0.22 5.27
Jun 100.1 28.01 39.8 78.2 -34.83 96.98 120 -10.18 -10.31
Jul 118.7 19.42 18.58 99.4 -23.71 27.11 130.3 -2.4 8.58
Aug 121.6 11.05 2.44 109.5 -10.25 10.16 122 -9.7 -6.37
Sep 131 1.55 7.73 129 5.31 17.81 122.5 -10.52 0.41
Oct 129 -3.59 -1.53 133.8 18.09 3.72 113.3 -18.9 -7.51
Nov 106.9 -5.4 -17.13 113 -3.17 -15.55 116.7 -1.35 3
Dec 121.5 -2.72 13.66 124.9 6.48 10.53 117.3 -5.56 0.51
Jan 119.8 -3.31 -1.4 123.9 -0.08 -0.8 124 -3.65 5.71
Feb -- 0 125 6.56 0.89 117.3 -6.24 -5.4
Mar -- 0 133 59.86 6.4 83.2 -36.83 -29.07
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